Fact Check: Misleading Claims on Rising Polar Bear Numbers Ignore Climate Crisis Threat

In the frozen silence of the Arctic, the polar bear, often dubbed the “cutest predator on Earth,” is facing a harsh and uncertain future. With their thick white fur, playful cubs, and powerful yet graceful movements, polar bears have long captured human fascination. But beneath this charm lies a growing crisis. Climate change is rapidly shrinking the sea ice that these majestic animals rely on for hunting seals, their main source of food. As the ice melts earlier and forms later each year, polar bears are forced to travel longer distances, using more energy and finding less food. Some populations have already shown signs of stress, with lower birth rates and increasing malnutrition. Scientists warn that if warming trends continue, polar bear numbers could fall by 30% by 2050. This cuddly symbol of the Arctic is now a struggling survivor, a reminder that even the cutest creatures are not safe from the climate crisis.

Amid this, a conflict has arisen on social media regarding the number of polar bears. Users have shared the claim that polar bear numbers are steadily increasing.

A screenshot of the claim is given below.

Fact Check:

The claim is misleading. Polar bears are at risk due to climate change. The Arctic is warming four times faster than the rest of the world, causing sea ice to melt earlier and freeze later. As a result, polar bear numbers could drop by 30% by mid-century.

While speaking with a wildlife warden, he stated that the claim is misleading. According to his statement, while some polar bear populations have remained stable or even slightly increased in certain regions due to local conservation efforts, this does not reflect the overall global trend. Polar bears are facing a serious threat from climate change. The Arctic, their primary habitat, is warming about four times faster than the rest of the world. This rapid warming is causing sea ice—crucial for polar bears to hunt seals and survive—to melt earlier in the year and return later. With less ice, polar bears are forced to travel longer distances to find food, leading to malnutrition, lower birth rates, and increased mortality. Scientists warn that if current trends continue, the global polar bear population could decrease by around 30% by the year 2050. So, while some areas may show short-term population stability, the long-term outlook for polar bears is deeply concerning. The claim that polar bear numbers are increasing is misleading when viewed in a global context.

During our keyword search, we came across a year-wise research article published by WWF. In the research article, WWF mentioned that before 1972, polar bears were an integral part of the Arctic ecosystem and the food web for Indigenous peoples who have hunted polar bears sustainably for millennia. But beginning in the 1700s, large-scale hunting by European, Russian, and North American hunters and trappers took place, raising concerns about the future survival of polar bears. Canada, the United States, Denmark, Norway, and the former USSR signed the International Agreement on the Conservation of Polar Bears and their Habitat, strictly regulating commercial hunting.

In 2005, the polar bear was upgraded from Least Concern to Vulnerable by the IUCN Polar Bear Specialist Group. In 2013, ministers and other leaders from the five polar bear range states met in Moscow for the first International Forum on Polar Bear Conservation. The leaders made significant commitments to address issues of polar bear habitat, research, and trade.

Today, polar bears are among the few large carnivores that are still found in roughly their original habitat and range—and in some places, in roughly their natural numbers. Although most of the world's 19 populations have returned to healthy numbers, there are differences between them. Some are stable, some seem to be increasing, and some are decreasing due to various pressures.

In the future, by 2040, scientists predict that only a fringe of ice will remain in Northeast Canada and Northern Greenland when all other large areas of summer ice are gone. This "Last Ice Area" is likely to become important for polar bears and other life that depends on ice.

India Today published an article with the title, Polar bear numbers could fall 30% by 2050, urgent action needed. In the article, India Today said polar bears (Ursus maritimus), the apex predators of the Arctic, are facing a critical threat due to climate change. Projections indicate that their global population could decline by more than 30% by 2050 if current trends continue. This alarming prediction underscores the urgent need for comprehensive conservation efforts to protect these iconic creatures and their rapidly changing habitat.

Primary Threats to Polar Bears

The most significant threat to polar bears is the loss of Arctic sea ice due to rising global temperatures. Polar bears rely on sea ice platforms to hunt seals, their primary prey. As the ice melts earlier in spring and forms later in autumn, bears have less time to hunt and build essential fat reserves. This reduction in hunting opportunities leads to malnutrition, decreased reproductive rates, and increased mortality.

Industrial pollutants, including persistent organic pollutants (POPs), accumulate in the Arctic ecosystem and concentrate in polar bears throughout the food chain. These contaminants can impair immune and reproductive systems, further exacerbating the challenges faced by the species.

The pursuit of natural resources in the Arctic introduces risks such as oil spills, which can have devastating effects on polar bear populations. Exposure to oil can lead to hypothermia, poisoning, and habitat degradation. Additionally, increased human activity disrupts critical habitats and can lead to more frequent human-bear conflicts.

Gadget 360 published that polar bears in Alaska are encountering a growing number of pathogens due to warming climates, as revealed in a study published in PLOS ONE on October 23. The research indicated that pathogens previously unable to survive in Arctic conditions are now persisting in these environments. This is believed to be a consequence of the rapid changes caused by climate shifts. The findings highlighted a significant increase in exposure among polar bears to viruses, bacteria, and parasites, posing new threats to their already vulnerable populations.

The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) classifies polar bears as Vulnerable on its Red List, highlighting the species' susceptibility to ongoing and future environmental changes.

A study published in Ecological Applications shows a 40% decline in the Southern Beaufort Sea population from 1,500 (2001) to 900 (2010) due to sea-ice loss.

Hence, we found the claim to be misleading. While some local polar bear populations may show short-term stability, the overall trend is negative. Polar bears are at risk due to climate change. The Arctic is warming four times faster than the rest of the world, causing sea ice to melt earlier and freeze later. As a result, polar bear numbers could drop by 30% by mid-century.